Kim Jong Un meets senior Chinese official in Dandong, Xinhua reports

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un made a public trip to the Chinese border city of Dandong on Oct. 24, Xinhua reported. He met senior Chinese official Wang Huning, visited a war memorial and a factory, and then returned to North Korea. The reports show Kim carrying out public engagements. They do not indicate that he has left office.

The trip came after several days of unverified claims on social media that Kim had suffered a brain hemorrhage, fallen into a coma and died. Those claims spread from Oct. 18 to 19. North Korean state media then reported on Oct. 20 that Kim had appeared at a Pyongyang exhibition, and released photos. South Korea's National Intelligence Service later said it had no evidence for the death claims, Yonhap News Agency reported. Kim also appeared at a military commanders' conference on Oct. 22 and 23.

Expectations that Kim would leave power before 2027 jumped briefly on Oct. 19, when the rumors spread, then fell back the next day after the state media photos. They stayed low through Oct. 23, then slid further over the weekend and into Monday. Traders now treat Kim remaining in power through the rest of the year as certain, though the question has not formally resolved.

The question requires Kim to permanently cease to hold his office by the end of 2026, as determined by credible reporting. An unverified health report, a temporary transfer of power, or an announcement of a departure would not count on its own.

On the wider question of which listed world leader leaves office next, traders see no one leaving before 2027 as a toss-up. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is the likeliest to go, though his departure is still seen as unlikely. Spain's Pedro Sánchez, Germany's Friedrich Merz and France's Sébastien Lecornu are all long shots.

No specific upcoming event bearing on Kim's hold on power has been identified. A credible report of a resignation, removal or permanent succession would change the picture.