Traders now see Likud winning fewer than 20 seats as a toss-up in Tuesday's election

Traders now see Likud winning fewer than 20 seats in Israel's election Tuesday as a toss-up, after bets on the party taking 20 to 24 seats collapsed Sunday evening. That bracket had been a toss-up for most of the past two weeks and is now unlikely.

Across the seat brackets, traders expect Likud to win about 21 seats, within a range running from under 20 to 28.2. Fewer than 20 is the likeliest single outcome. Winning 25 to 29 seats is unlikely, though slightly more favored than when this story began, and 30 to 34 seats is a long shot. Likud held 32 seats in the outgoing Knesset, so even the middle of that range would be a steep fall.

The reason for the drop is unclear. The reporting found shows no event close to the move, and later Sunday coverage of the final polls and the campaign is not close enough in time to explain it. The move came in a few minutes on very heavy trading.

The odds had been fairly steady until then. Bets on the 20-24 bracket dipped Monday, when Benny Gantz announced that his Blue and White party was withdrawing from the race, then jumped back to a toss-up Tuesday, when an i24NEWS poll put Likud at 26 seats. Reporting does not establish what drove either swing. The odds held near a toss-up through Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday, and through most of Sunday, before the evening plunge.

Final polls point in different directions. Surveys published Friday projected 19 seats for Likud (Channel 13), 20 (Kan 11) and 21 (Channel 12), while i24NEWS projected 26. The Petek's average of the latest polls put the party at 23. Israeli polling publication stopped after Friday, so no new polls are expected before voting.

On the wider race, traders see Gadi Eizenkot as the favorite to be prime minister after the election, with Benjamin Netanyahu the runner-up.

The vote count is the next decisive evidence. Israel votes Tuesday, and voting is scheduled to close at 22:00 Israel time, when television channels are expected to publish exit polls. Official results are due to be confirmed November 4. The seat total will count any seats Likud wins through a joint list or a merged party.