After Ukrainian counterattacks near Orikhiv, a Russian capture by June looks unlikely

Traders now see it as unlikely that Russia captures the Ukrainian town of Orikhiv by the end of June. Bets on that outcome fell sharply on Thursday from a toss-up, and a likely reason has emerged.

On Wednesday, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S. research group that tracks the fighting, reported that Ukrainian forces counterattacked south of Orikhiv and that Russian attacks in western Zaporizhzhia region made no advance. Reporting on Thursday, including by XAB.info, brought the assessment to wider attention. That plausibly contributed to the drop, though no source directly links it to the betting.

The move came in the afternoon. The price held steady through the morning, then slid as the day went on. Traders' central expectation is now that Russia does not take the town by the end of June. When the story began, it was around late June. The earliest date in traders' range is around late January, which suggests some chance of a faster fall but not a likely one.

The shorter deadlines tell the same story. A capture by the end of December is a long shot, and a capture by the end of March is unlikely. Both slipped slightly on Thursday.

Orikhiv has been a Russian objective since Russian forces retook Robotyne, to its south, in May 2024. In September, ISW reported that Russian troops had infiltrated parts of Orikhiv and nearby Mala Tokmachka but had not established firm control over either. On Nov. 1, ISW said Russia had made tactically significant gains near Orikhiv while trying to link up with forces advancing from the east and south. Ukraine's general staff reported no active Russian operations in the Orikhiv sector in the 24 hours to early Thursday.

What happens next depends on the fighting and on ISW's daily map updates. For the outcome to count, ISW must show the town as assessed Russian-controlled terrain or an assessed Russian advance, and the shading must hold through the next full daily update cycle. Infiltration areas and territory that Russia merely claims do not count. Actual Russian control handed over in a negotiated settlement would also count.