Bets on Russian diesel reaching the U.S. by November's end slide further, near a toss-up

Traders now see a Russian diesel delivery to a U.S. port by the end of November as slightly less likely than not, just short of a toss-up. Bets slid further overnight after dropping to a toss-up on Thursday afternoon. The reason for the decline is unclear.

Across the related questions on delivery dates, traders' central expectation is now early December, later than the late November it reached when the story was last updated and the early November it started at. Their range runs from early November to no delivery by Dec. 31. The single likeliest window is early to mid-November. Bets on a delivery by the end of the year have also fallen sharply since the story began, from all but certain to likely.

The November question has lost ground in steps. Bets began the tracking period on Oct. 22 at likely, then jumped on Friday, Oct. 23, after Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the first tanker under the diesel arrangement had sailed, Reuters reported. They climbed to near-certainty early the next week, fell hard on Wednesday and dropped again on Thursday afternoon. Overnight into Friday they sank further, then steadied and ticked up slightly.

The question requires Russian-origin diesel to be physically delivered to a U.S. port or onto U.S. land for commercial or government use. Credible reporting must describe the delivery as made under the Oct. 9 Trump-Putin agreement or a successor, or it must be authorized under General License 135 or a successor. Diesel used as a ship's own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or in transit to another country does not count.

The Treasury issued General License 135 on Oct. 9, authorizing transactions involving Russian-origin diesel, including imports into the United States, through April 7, 2027. President Trump announced the U.S.-Russia arrangement the same day. The tanker at the center of the story, the Agioi Fanendes, carries about 40,000 metric tons. It first signaled New York, but its destination is now listed as "For orders." Its latest reported position showed it still underway, with an arrival estimate of Nov. 7. It has not been reported as having delivered diesel to a U.S. port.

Recent reporting gives context but does not establish a cause for the latest drop. On Oct. 26, lawmakers asked banks and ports to preserve records on possible Russian-diesel transactions. On Thursday, reporting said U.S. firms were reluctant to accept the cargo while administration officials encouraged them to do so. The "For orders" listing does not by itself show the ship has been diverted.

The tanker has no confirmed port of discharge, and no decision on whether the cargo will be accepted in the United States has been announced. The Nov. 3 midterm elections may affect the prospect of congressional scrutiny, and reporting says other Russian-diesel cargoes may approach U.S. ports after Election Day.