With a Russian diesel tanker's New York arrival in doubt, U.S. delivery looks a long shot

On the eve of the date a Russian diesel tanker was first expected in New York, traders see a qualifying U.S. delivery as a long shot by mid-November. Bets have barely moved in the past day and have stayed at that low level since Thursday.

The path here was steep. At the end of October, a delivery by mid-November was unlikely but within reach, and on Sunday bets rose to just short of a toss-up. They held there into Monday, then fell sharply on Tuesday and Wednesday, dropping from a near toss-up to a long shot. They have been flat since. The reason for each swing is not established, though the shipping picture changed over the same days.

The delivery would have to count under the rules. Russian-origin diesel must be physically delivered to a U.S. port or U.S. land territory for commercial or government use. It must also be described by credible reporting as made under the October 9 Trump-Putin agreement, or be authorized under the Treasury's General License 135. Fuel held in bond for re-export, in transit to another country or used as a ship's own fuel does not count.

The tanker at the center is the Agioi Fanendes, which S&P Global reported left Primorsk on about October 23 with roughly 40,000 metric tons aboard. Maritime intelligence firm Windward said on November 3 that two of three initially U.S.-bound tankers had changed their declared destinations or routes. It said the Agioi Fanendes had changed its destination from New York to "for orders" but still appeared headed toward the northeastern U.S. coast. The Associated Press reported on November 5 that two tankers had changed course and that the third's unloading point remained open. It added that it was unclear whether the cargoes had U.S. buyers.

Political resistance has also grown. Sen. Richard Blumenthal demanded on October 27 that shipping companies recall tankers, arguing that a 2022 law bars the imports. New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill warned terminal operators on November 2 against accepting the fuel.

Longer deadlines look only modestly better. Delivery by the end of November and by the end of the year are both still unlikely. Across the full set of deadlines, traders expect the range to run from around late November to no qualifying delivery by March 31, 2027, with the latter the likeliest outcome.

What comes next depends on the ship. Further routing changes, a buyer or terminal agreeing to take the cargo, or confirmed unloading would clarify the outcome. A tracking page checked Friday showed the vessel's latest position dated October 28, so its arrival in New York is not confirmed.