Bets on Alito announcing retirement by next June rise but stay a toss-up

Traders see it as a toss-up that Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito announces his retirement by next June, after bets on that outcome rose again on Thursday. The reason for the latest move is not clear, and no reported news explains it.

The climb came in a sudden burst on Thursday afternoon. Bets had sat flat overnight and through the morning, then jumped within an hour and eased back slightly. They ended the day higher than a day earlier, though still within the toss-up range.

The swings have been sharp for two weeks. Expectations were steady in the middle of the month, then surged on Oct. 16, the day President Donald Trump reshared an older Politico article about Alito weighing retirement and called him "a great man." That post was not an announcement by Alito or his representative. Bets faded over the next few days, then collapsed on Oct. 21 to a level that made an announcement unlikely. They recovered within a day, slipped again, and rose on Oct. 26. Bloomberg reported that day that retirement betting had risen despite Alito's own statements, but it did not identify any new decision. Bets dipped on Oct. 28 before Thursday's jump.

Alito's public comments point toward staying for now. On Oct. 6 he told Bloomberg News he intends to remain through the court's current term and will not retire during Congress's lame-duck session later this year, the Washington Post reported. That rules out one window but not an announcement made earlier of a later retirement. Under the question's terms, an announcement by Alito or an official representative would count even if the retirement took effect later.

Traders still see a nearer-term announcement as less likely. Bets on Alito announcing his retirement by the end of this year are unlikely, and they have barely moved, slipping slightly since the story began. The gap between the two suggests traders see most of the chance falling in the first half of next year, around the end of the court's term.

The next marker is the Nov. 3 midterm elections, which will decide the makeup of the next Senate and could affect how easily a successor is confirmed. Until Alito or his representatives say something new, the swings are likely to continue without a clear cause.