Bets jump that Alito announces his retirement by next June, now a toss-up

Traders sharply raised their expectations on Tuesday that Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito will announce his retirement by June 30, 2027, lifting the question from unlikely to a toss-up within minutes in the afternoon.

The reason for the sudden surge is not yet clear. No retirement announcement from Alito or an official representative has been reported, and no recent public development has been found to explain the move. The story will be updated if a cause emerges.

The jump came on Election Day, when the midterm elections will determine the makeup of the next Senate, which would handle confirmation of any successor. But that link is not established as the cause of the move. Alito told Bloomberg in an interview published Oct. 6 that he intends to stay through the current term, even if Democrats win the Senate. The Washington Post also reported that he said he would not retire during the lame-duck session of Congress.

Those statements do not close off every path. The question asks only whether Alito or an official representative announces by June 30, 2027 that he will retire, and the retirement itself could take effect later. A decision to leave at the end of the term, or an announcement made during the term of a departure afterward, would count.

The odds have been volatile for weeks. On Oct. 21, bets on an announcement by next June fell sharply from near a toss-up to unlikely, then recovered over the next day or so. They climbed to a toss-up on Oct. 26, the day Bloomberg reported that retirement wagers had grown despite Alito's stated plans. They slipped on Oct. 28, rose again on Oct. 29, and fell back to unlikely on Oct. 30. On Monday they were still unlikely. Coverage did not find a clear cause for most of those swings.

On Oct. 16, President Donald Trump reshared a two-week-old Politico article about Alito weighing retirement and called him "a great man." That post drew fresh attention, but it was not an announcement. In June, NPR retracted an erroneous report that Alito was retiring.

A separate question, on whether Alito announces his retirement by the end of this year, remains unlikely and did not move.

The Supreme Court's hearing list for the session that began Nov. 2 names Alito as an associate justice. The next signals to watch are the election results and any statement from Alito or his representatives about his plans after the current term ends.