Bets leave Šoškić barely ahead of Saičić for Serbia's PM by mid-2028

Traders see Dejan Šoškić, a former central-bank governor, and Radomir Saičić, a chemistry professor, as nearly level contenders to become Serbia's next prime minister by mid-2028. Šoškić remains a shade ahead. Neither is favored, and both are seen as unlikely.

Saičić's chances swung widely on Tuesday. They jumped sharply around midday, fell back by roughly half through the afternoon, then rebounded in the evening to close the gap with Šoškić again. The reason for the latest rebound is not clear. Šoškić, who was seen as a toss-up when this story began, has slipped to unlikely over the same stretch.

The midday surge followed a BL Portal report published Tuesday saying Saičić and Šoškić were being mentioned as possible prime-ministerial picks. That report described speculation, not an official nomination, and it is background for the earlier jump, not an explanation of the evening rebound.

The rest of the field trails. Ilija Srdanović is also seen as unlikely, while Aleksandar Vučić, Vladan Đokić and Dejan Bodiroga are long shots.

The election itself is settled. Vučić conceded defeat after Sunday's vote, and the Republic Electoral Commission's preliminary results gave the Student List 52.71% of the vote and an estimated 140 of 250 seats, a majority. The open question is who will lead the winning movement's government. The list campaigned on collective leadership and named no prime-ministerial candidate.

Saičić is ranked 91st on the list, and preliminary results suggest he would enter parliament. That does not make him the nominee. For this outcome, the National Assembly would have to elect him, he would have to be sworn in, and he would have to form a new government by June 30, 2028. An interim or caretaker prime minister would not count.

The next steps are final election results and the Student List's choice of a nominee. The Assembly is to be established within 30 days of the final results, and a government must then be formed within 90 days. No date has been identified for a nomination or an Assembly vote. An official announcement from the Student List, or a nomination followed by a vote, would clarify the outcome.