Feijóo stays the clear favorite for Spain's next prime minister four weeks before vote

Four weeks before Spain's November 29 general election, traders still see Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leader of the conservative Popular Party, as the likely next prime minister. Expectations have barely changed since coverage began, and the odds sit at the high end of the range of recent weeks.

Over the past two weeks, bets on Feijóo hovered in a narrow band, dipping slightly on a few days and recovering each time. They edged up on October 30 and have held there through Saturday and Sunday. That is a nudge, not a shift, and no specific news is identified as driving it.

Traders see the rest of the field as far behind. Incumbent Pedro Sánchez, a Socialist, is seen as unlikely to remain prime minister, and Vox leader Santiago Abascal is a long shot. Traders also expect Sánchez to leave office around mid-January 2027, with a range running from before December 31 to not by January 31, 2027.

Sánchez called the snap election on October 5 after his government lost votes on housing measures. The decree dissolving parliament followed the next day.

The polling picture is mixed. RTVE's polling average through October 26 projected 133 seats in Congress for the Popular Party, and a combined majority for the party and Vox if the two reached an agreement. The public Center for Sociological Research, known as the CIS, had a very different October result, putting Sánchez's Socialists at 34% and the Popular Party at 22.2%. On October 23, Feijóo said he was willing to complete a parliamentary majority with Vox, according to El País.

Winning the most seats would not by itself make Feijóo prime minister. He would need to win a vote of confidence in the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn in. An interim or caretaker government does not count, so the outcome here is a new government led by Feijóo taking office by early 2028.

The official campaign runs from November 13 through November 27, with voting on November 29. The newly elected chambers are due to convene on December 23, after which the race to form a government begins. How Feijóo's party fares against the Socialists, and whether it can reach a deal with Vox, will determine whether the current confidence in him holds.