Bets on Chiang Wan-an winning Taipei's Nov. 28 mayoral race climb to likely

Traders now see Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an as likely to win re-election in the Nov. 28 vote, a clear step up from a toss-up a day earlier. The reason for the shift is unclear, and no news event has been identified as driving it.

Bets on Chiang climbed overnight and into Wednesday morning after a slow, uncertain stretch. On Tuesday his chances sagged to their lowest point of the week before recovering in the evening, and they have held near their new level through Wednesday. Over the previous two weeks they had swung within a fairly narrow range, with a brief spike around the Oct. 31 debate that quickly faded.

Chiang's challenger, Democratic Progressive Party legislator Puma Shen, has lost ground in step. Traders still regard Shen as unlikely to win, but a clear gap now separates him from the Kuomintang incumbent. Taken together, expectations in the two-man race point to Chiang as the favorite and Shen as the runner-up.

Polling has given mixed signals. TVBS found Chiang ahead by 28 points in late May, but its survey right after the Oct. 31 debate showed him up by only four points, 46% to 42%. Two surveys released Nov. 2 pointed in opposite directions: an ETtoday online poll put Chiang ahead 52.0% to 40.7%, while a telephone survey commissioned by the Strategy and Public Research Institute of Taiwan put Shen ahead 52.6% to 35.3%, according to Newtalk and the Taipei Times. Those results came before the latest move in expectations and do not establish what caused it.

The sharp split in the polls helps explain why expectations have been volatile, but it does not show why traders turned toward Chiang on Wednesday. Differences in method, such as online versus telephone sampling, may matter, though the reporting reviewed does not say.

Taipei voters choose their mayor on Nov. 28. More campaigning and polling in the coming weeks could clarify whether Chiang keeps his advantage in some surveys or Shen's leads in others hold up. The candidates have discussed holding another debate, according to TVBS World Taiwan, but no date has been set in the reporting reviewed.