Traders see a Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement coming around early May

A month before Tesla's annual shareholder meeting, traders expect Tesla and SpaceX to announce a merger, but probably not right away. Their central estimate for an announcement is around early May 2027, with a range running from around early January 2027 to not happening by the end of 2027.

The question of an announcement by the end of February is unlikely. Related bets point the same way: an announcement by the end of December is a long shot, one by the end of January is unlikely, and one by the end of June is a toss-up. An announcement before 2028 looks likely.

The odds have been flat since Nov. 1, after a choppy few weeks. They rose on Oct. 20, the day Elon Musk said both companies had formed independent committees to consider a combination. They slipped over the next several days, bottoming out around Oct. 24 and 25, then recovered on Oct. 28 and 29 before settling back. Nothing has moved them since.

Neither company has announced a deal. SpaceX's quarterly filing said its committee had made no determination and that there was no assurance of an agreement. Tesla's filing said its committee was exploring a deeper relationship that could take forms other than a business combination.

Analysts have sketched scenarios. Barclays suggested an announcement could come as soon as this fall, and on Oct. 21 JPMorgan outlined a possible SpaceX-led stock deal. These were analyst views, not company offers. Tesla's $2 billion investment in SpaceX gave it less than 1% ownership, which falls short of the controlling stake needed to count.

The next scheduled event is Tesla's shareholder meeting on Dec. 3, held in the afternoon Central time. The published proxy includes no merger vote, so the meeting is not expected to settle the question. The committees could recommend a transaction or decide not to proceed. An official announcement of a qualifying merger or acquisition would be enough; the deal would not need to close.