Traders are certain Democrat Hinojosa will beat Gov. Abbott in Texas, a swift reversal

Traders now treat Democrat Gina Hinojosa's victory over Republican Gov. Greg Abbott in Texas' governor's race as certain, though the contest has not been formally decided. The Republican side of the betting has now settled as well: a Republican win is treated as out of the question.

The reason for this final step is not separately explained. The most likely reason for the earlier surge was election-night returns. Decision Desk HQ's results tracker showed Hinojosa with 58.26% and Abbott with 40.46% once 23% of the expected vote had been counted. That snapshot carries no timestamp, so its timing relative to the surge cannot be confirmed.

The reversal was fast. Through late October, traders considered a Republican win likely, and Abbott was the favorite when this story began. Expectations for Abbott slipped Monday and fell further Tuesday as polls closed in the evening. Late Tuesday they dropped to roughly even, rebounded to likely within the hour, then collapsed to unlikely and on to a long shot. By early Wednesday traders had stopped giving Abbott any chance.

The backdrop makes the shift notable. Abbott sought a fourth term, and Texas has not elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards lost reelection in 1994. An October University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll found Hinojosa ahead 49% to 48%, within its margin of error. Hinojosa is a Democratic state representative.

Caution is still warranted about the early count. The Texas Tribune reported that Hinojosa's early strength included North Texas suburbs and urban metros, but that those returns largely excluded Election Day ballots. The Associated Press had warned that most counties would report early and absentee votes before in-person Election Day votes.

Counting continues, and a partial lead does not establish a winner. The race will be decided when the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call it for the same candidate. If they do not, official certification will settle it. Further county returns, including Election Day votes, will show whether Hinojosa's lead holds.