Traders expect the U.S. to refrain from striking Yemen through November

Traders see it as all but certain that U.S. forces will not carry out an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike on Yemen's land or internal waters this month. The view comes a day before Egypt's parliament votes on supporting Saudi Arabia in its fight with the Houthis.

The expectation extends past October. A separate question on whether the U.S. holds off through November 30 also rates as likely, and traders' central expectation is that the restraint lasts beyond the end of November. Confidence is a notch lower for the longer window, which leaves more time for events to change course.

The odds have traveled a long way since Oct. 12, when staying out of Yemen was likely but far from settled. They surged the next day and kept climbing, reaching all but certain by Oct. 18 and 19. A sharp, brief dip came on Oct. 21, when the Houthis stepped up attacks on Saudi and Yemeni government targets, but bets recovered within a day. They have barely moved since, and have held steady through Sunday.

The Oct. 21 drop and rebound have no clear explanation. The U.S. has so far been reluctant to join the fighting directly. Axios reported on Sept. 21 that President Trump weighed a strike after a Saudi request but held off. On Oct. 2, it reported that Washington had again rebuffed Saudi requests to join a counteroffensive. On Oct. 20, the U.S. envoy to Syria said Trump supported Saudi Arabia and would provide logistical backing, but that U.S. involvement in another ground battle seemed fruitless.

Risks remain. The State Department ordered some diplomats and their families to leave Saudi Arabia on Oct. 21 amid security concerns. The Associated Press reported that Saudi Arabia has reopened its main airport to international flights, though Houthi drone and missile attacks continue.

Next up is Egypt's vote on President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi's request to authorize support for Saudi Arabia. Parliament is due to resume deliberations Monday morning local time, and Ahram Online reported that lawmakers lean toward approval. That would authorize Egyptian action, not American, and would not on its own affect the question here. What matters is whether U.S. forces directly carry out a qualifying strike by Oct. 31. Contractor or proxy actions, intercepted munitions, naval gunfire, ground incursions, cyber operations and unexecuted threats do not count.