On the eve of Serbia's election, traders still expect Vučić's list to win the most seats

Traders go into Sunday's parliamentary election in Serbia expecting Aleksandar Vučić's United Serbia list to win the most seats. The Student List – Students Win, the slate that grew out of the student-led protest movement, is seen as unlikely to finish first, though it remains the clear second contender. Traders see little room for anyone else to take the top spot.

The Student List's chances have slipped over the past two weeks. Through the first half of October they held in a range that put an upset within reach. They fell on Sunday, Oct. 18, the day coverage noted that September polling pointed in opposite directions, and eased further through the week. Early Saturday they dropped sharply for a few hours before recovering, and they end the eve of the vote about where they stood a day earlier. Vučić's list has stayed likely to win throughout.

Traders also see Vučić as the likeliest next prime minister. Dejan Šošić is a distant second in that contest.

The polls give no settled picture. A poll by NSPM, published Oct. 20 from fieldwork between Sept. 25 and Oct. 5, put the Student List at 44.5% and Vučić's list at 42.7%. An Ipsos survey released Oct. 22, based on 3,624 interviews conducted Oct. 20-22, estimated 47.4% for Vučić's list and 40% for the Student List. Vučić's list commissioned the Ipsos poll, which excluded voters in Kosovo and abroad.

The campaign closed with dueling rallies. The Associated Press reported that a huge crowd turned out for the students' final event on Thursday. Vučić held a separate closing rally and predicted his list would win by several hundred thousand votes. Nothing in the available reporting explains a specific move in the odds.

The contest grew out of protests that began after a railway-station canopy collapse in Novi Sad killed 16 people in November 2024. Vučić called the early election on Sept. 9, and the Republic Electoral Commission proclaimed the Student List on Sept. 15. The commission recorded 6,451,292 eligible voters as of Oct. 23. In the 2023 parliamentary election, the list led by Vučić's party won 129 of the 250 seats.

Polling stations open Sunday from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. local time. The commission has scheduled briefings through the day and says it may add more. The count and the seat totals for the two main lists will decide the question. The commission's calendar provides for a consolidated voting report within 96 hours after polls close, subject to pending legal challenges. A close or disputed count could delay a definitive result.