Anthropic's mid-November IPO plan keeps traders eyeing a value near $1.9 trillion

Traders still expect Anthropic to finish its first day of public trading worth about $1.9 trillion, with expectations running from roughly $1.35 trillion to $2.45 trillion. The likeliest single range is $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion, though even that is unlikely to be the exact outcome. These figures assume the IPO happens, which traders consider all but certain before 2028.

The latest move came in a lower range. Bets that Anthropic's market value at the close of its first trading day lands between $1.25 trillion and $1.5 trillion climbed sharply on Friday, moving from a long shot to unlikely. The range was little changed through most of the week, eased from Oct. 19 through Oct. 22, then jumped in the last day. Bets on the ranges just above it, from $1.5 trillion to $2.25 trillion, are still unlikely, and a close below $1.25 trillion remains a long shot.

The likely reason is a Reuters report on Oct. 22. It said Anthropic is pressing ahead with a mid-November IPO, that its prospectus could become public in late October, and that some investors see a possible valuation of $1.5 trillion. That figure is a reported reference point, not a confirmed IPO price or first-day closing value, so the link to the move is plausible rather than certain.

Valuation talk has shifted in recent weeks. Anthropic confidentially submitted a draft registration to the Securities and Exchange Commission on June 1, saying the offering depended on market conditions and that its share count and price had not been set. Its May funding round valued the company at $965 billion. After an Oct. 14 investor meeting, Reuters reported that third-quarter revenue rose 45% to $16.8 billion. Some investors were disappointed by slower growth from the previous quarter and discussed a valuation near $1.5 trillion, down from earlier expectations near $2 trillion.

Traders expect the listing in late November, with the most likely window Nov. 15 to Nov 20. Reuters reported that Anthropic could begin marketing shares the week of Nov. 9, though timing could change. The public prospectus, any revision to valuation expectations and market conditions will shape the outcome. The final answer depends on the official closing price and share count on the first trading day.