Even as Egypt backs Saudi Arabia, traders expect the U.S. to stay out of Yemen this month

Traders see it as all but certain that U.S. forces will not carry out an air strike or missile strike on Yemen's land or waters this month, even after Egypt's parliament voted to back Saudi Arabia in the widening Saudi-Houthi conflict.

Egypt's parliament voted Monday to authorize President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi to take necessary measures to support Saudi Arabia, according to Ahram Online. The House's statement describes the mandate as defending Saudi territory, sovereignty and holy sites. El-Sissi had said on October 21 that Egypt would not attack Yemen. The vote concerns Egypt, not a U.S. decision to strike, and does not by itself change what Washington is doing.

Expectations have strengthened over the past two weeks. In mid-October, traders already thought U.S. restraint was likely, and confidence climbed through the week of October 13 until it reached all but certain by October 19. On October 21, after Houthi attacks and Saudi-led coalition interceptions raised fears of escalation, confidence dropped sharply for a time before recovering the same day. It slipped a little on October 23 and edged back up over the weekend. On Monday it rose again, a modest gain, to its highest level since bets began being tracked. It has barely moved since.

The U.S. posture reported so far supports that view. On September 11, U.S. officials told ABC News the administration had no current plan for direct attacks on the Houthis. The Associated Press reported on October 6 that President Trump was not directing U.S. forces to resume strikes. No new U.S. decision to strike was reported with this check-in.

The question is narrow. It asks only whether U.S. armed forces directly carry out a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that hits Yemen's land territory or internal waters before the end of the day on October 31, Yemen time. Strikes by Yemeni government or Saudi-led forces do not count. Neither do contractor or proxy actions, intercepted munitions or debris, naval gunfire, ground incursions, cyber operations, or threats that are not carried out.

Bets on a longer stretch are more cautious. Traders see the U.S. staying out of Yemen through the end of November as likely, but not all but certain, and that view has not changed since the story began.

No further scheduled vote or decision bearing directly on U.S. action in Yemen has been identified. What would change the picture is a direct U.S. strike on Yemeni territory in the days remaining.