Bets rise that Trump names a new White House press secretary this month, now a toss-up

Traders now see it as a toss-up that President Trump or his administration announces a new White House press secretary before the end of November, up from unlikely a day earlier. The shift came late on Tuesday, Election Day, when the odds climbed in a few hours from just above a one-in-three chance to close to even.

The reason for the move is not yet clear. No announcement or report explains it, and the story will be updated if a cause emerges.

The job has been open since Katie Zacharia left it. Trump announced Zacharia as press secretary on October 9, after Karoline Leavitt left the role in August, ABC News reported. Zacharia began on October 12 and departed on October 16 after a rocky first briefing and scrutiny of her legal credentials.

On October 21, USA Today reported that a decision on a replacement was not expected until after the November 3 midterm elections. White House communications director Steven Cheung said Trump and his team were focused on the election. That reporting explains the wait, but it does not account for Tuesday's jump.

The odds had been fairly steady before that. They fell sharply on October 21, the day of the USA Today report, then held in a narrow band through the last week of October and the first days of November, mostly staying in unlikely territory. Tuesday's rise took them to their highest level since the first days of tracking.

Traders are more confident about a longer window. A parallel question on whether a new press secretary is named by the end of December is seen as likely, and it also edged up from where it stood when this story began.

What counts is narrow. Only the announcement of a permanent successor would settle the question. An acting or interim press secretary would not qualify, and the person does not have to be sworn in or begin work by the end of November.

The next consequential step would be an announcement by Trump or his administration naming Zacharia's permanent successor. USA Today reported that a decision was expected after the midterms, but no date for an announcement has been given.