Nvidia's slide leaves Apple likely to be the world's largest company by year-end

Traders now see Apple as likely to be the world's largest company at the close of trading on December 31, a sharp change from a day earlier, when the race looked like a toss-up. The shift followed another drop in Nvidia's shares, which are the main threat to Apple's position.

Nvidia shares extended their decline on November 5, falling in premarket trading as chip and data-center stocks were sold again, Reuters reported. That came after a November 4 session in which Apple overtook Nvidia by market value. According to MarketWatch, Apple had its best day in more than a year. Apple closed up 5.31% at $349.51, while Nvidia fell 3.17% to $200.13. The moves made an Apple lead easier to sustain, though the ranking can still change.

The odds have been volatile. Through late October they swung sharply, with Apple's chances falling and then rebounding within days. After Apple reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $114.5 billion, up 12% from a year earlier, but warned that its December-quarter gross margin would be lower, bets on Apple slipped and it was considered unlikely to finish on top. Nvidia moved ahead of Apple on November 3, when its shares rose 2.3% and Apple's fell 1.9%. The reversal on November 4 sent Apple's chances up in a single day, and they kept climbing on November 5 to the point where Apple is now favored.

Bets on Nvidia have moved the other way. Traders had seen Nvidia as a toss-up to be the largest company at year-end when this story began. They now consider it unlikely.

The question is only about the single closing day, so the ranking in between does not count. Apple and Nvidia have traded the lead several times amid volatility in technology shares, and a lead of a few weeks is not secure.

Nvidia's earnings on November 17 are the next scheduled test. The company has said it will report fiscal third-quarter results that afternoon, with a conference call to follow. Those results, and the trading in Apple, Nvidia and other large companies that follows, could change the ranking before the year ends.