Traders certain Apple will be the world's largest company, ahead of Nvidia

Traders now treat it as certain that Nvidia will fall short of the top spot among the world's most valuable companies on the October 31 measuring date, matching their certainty that Apple will take it. The outcome has not been confirmed, and no reported news explains the final slide in Nvidia's odds.

The path was uneven. Bets on Nvidia finishing on top were all but certain earlier in the week, then dropped to likely on Wednesday as Apple's odds began to build. On Thursday evening they fell from likely to unlikely within hours, a swing that flipped the favorite. Early Friday, Nvidia's odds rebounded to a toss-up around midday, but that rebound was taken back in full through the afternoon and evening. No reported news explained either the jump or the fade.

The share prices show how narrow the race was. Apple closed Thursday up 1.48% at $348.91, a record closing high, for a value of about $5.092 trillion. Nvidia closed down 0.80% at $213.66, worth about $5.15 trillion, so it was still slightly ahead at that close. Financial media tied Thursday's tech weakness to Alphabet's quarterly results and worries about AI spending. Apple's gains were attributed to analyst support, including a reiterated Buy rating from Goldman Sachs, and its new MacBook Pro lineup.

Nvidia also faces regulatory scrutiny. Reuters reported on October 28 that the Justice Department is making inquiries into Nvidia's roughly $13 billion agreement to acquire AI model company Hugging Face, and that it is continuing a yearslong probe of Nvidia's conduct. Benzinga reported late Thursday that Nvidia shares fell after hours. None of the coverage reviewed ties that scrutiny to Friday's moves in the odds.

Nvidia held the top spot for much of the autumn. A mid-October listing put it at around $5.5 trillion against Apple at around $4.9 trillion. Apple first passed Nvidia as the most valuable company on July 27, according to CNBC, and it briefly overtook Nvidia during trading on October 23 before closing slightly behind.

For longer horizons, traders are less sure. Bets that Nvidia is the largest company at year-end sit at a toss-up, down from likely when this story began.

What comes next is Friday's trading close, the last regular session before October 31. Reports on the Justice Department's review, or further moves in either company's shares at the close, are the factors that could still matter. No scheduled event was reported for the final session.