House midterm vote total now expected to stay below 120 million

The final count of votes cast for the U.S. House in the Nov. 3 midterms is now expected to land between 115 million and 120 million, as traders moved firmly away from a higher total through the morning of Nov. 14. A count of 120 million to 125 million, a toss-up when the day began, is now seen as unlikely. The reason for the shift is not yet clear.

Across the possible totals, traders expect about 118 million votes, down from about 119 million earlier in the day, with a likely range of 116 million to 123 million.

The move came in two stages. Bets on the higher range fell sharply within minutes in the early hours of Nov. 14 on unusually heavy trading, after holding steady for hours. They then kept sliding through the morning, with another steep drop at the end, leaving the lower range as the clear favorite rather than a narrow one.

Unofficial tallies already sit inside the favored range. Popular Vote Analytics reported 117,431,320 candidate votes across 434 districts as of midday Nov. 12, and said California and other states were still counting mail ballots. That figure was a running count, not a final projection. Early on Nov. 14, watch.vote recorded updated unofficial House counts from Alaska and several California districts, showing counting was still under way, but those updates do not establish a national net effect or explain the change in bets.

Other numbers in circulation are not directly comparable. The Green Papers lists an unofficial total of 118,453,617, but that includes some undervotes and overvotes. An estimate of 123.5 million total ballots, cited by Political.org, counts everyone who voted, and some voters skip the House contest while some states do not tabulate votes in uncontested races. The question turns only on votes cast for House candidates in the 50 states, as published by the House Clerk; votes for delegates and Puerto Rico's resident commissioner are excluded.

What comes next is the slow end of the count. States are still tallying and certifying results, and late ballots could keep the total inside the favored range or carry it to 120 million or more. Cook Political Report says its vote tracker will run until all 50 states certify. The unofficial trackers are not the final word; the Clerk's published statistics will settle the matter.