No world leader clearly expected to leave office by year-end

Two weeks before Spain's snap general election, traders see no clear favorite among a list of world leaders who might leave office before 2027. The likeliest single result, close to a toss-up, is that none of them goes this year. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is the likeliest to be first out, though that is still seen as unlikely.

Netanyahu's chances of being the first to go have risen sharply this month. At the start of November they were a long shot. They climbed through the first week and jumped on Nov. 8, the day President Isaac Herzog formally tasked Gadi Eisenkot with forming a government. Since then they have held roughly steady, easing slightly on Sunday.

Israel's Oct. 27 election left Netanyahu's bloc with 53 of the Knesset's 120 seats, Eisenkot's non-Arab opposition bloc with 48 and Arab-led parties with 19. Lawmakers holding 67 seats recommended Eisenkot for prime minister, compared with 46 for Netanyahu. The new Knesset was sworn in on Nov. 10, but coalition negotiations remain difficult. On Saturday, Netanyahu called for unconditional unity-government talks; Eisenkot dismissed the public appeal as a media stunt, Anadolu Agency reported.

Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister, and that matters for the question at hand. Losing an election or an announced departure does not count. A leader has to permanently stop holding the office before the year ends, and continued caretaker service keeps him in place.

The same test applies in Spain, where Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called a snap election for Nov. 29 after Congress rejected his government's housing decrees. A vote that goes against him would not by itself remove him from office, and a scheduled handover after an election would not count until it takes place.

In Israel, the calendar is tight. Eisenkot has 28 days from his Nov. 8 appointment to form a government, with a possible 14-day extension, and reports identify Dec. 6 as the initial deadline. A coalition that takes office under another prime minister would displace Netanyahu. If the talks fail, the result could be another attempt to form a government or a new election, with Netanyahu potentially staying on as caretaker into the new year.