USS Theodore Roosevelt now expected in Middle East in late November

The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt is now expected to reach the Middle East in late November, as traders turned against an arrival this weekend. Its entering the waters of U.S. Central Command, the military command that covers the region, by Sunday was a toss-up early Saturday and is now seen as unlikely.

The reason is not clear. No report or official statement has been found that explains the drop, and nothing has confirmed where the ship is.

Most of the fall came in a single stretch on Saturday morning, when expectations dropped sharply. They recovered slightly a couple of hours later before slipping back to the day's low. Across the range of arrival dates traders are betting on, the central expectation is mid-November, with a range of mid to late November, and the second half of the month is seen as the most likely window.

The Theodore Roosevelt left San Diego on Sept. 27 for a deployment expected to take it to the Middle East, where USNI News reported it was expected to relieve the USS George Washington. The carrier visited Singapore in early November. USNI's Nov. 9 fleet tracker placed it in the Andaman Sea, based on ship-spotter information, and its Nov. 13 report said the strike group had departed Singapore. Reports differ on when it left. A separate ship tracker's Andaman Sea location was last updated Nov. 11 and was an estimate, not a confirmed position. None of the reports establishes that the carrier has entered Central Command's area.

The doubts fit what had already been said. A U.S. official had said earlier that the strike group would not reach the region before mid-November, and The War Zone estimated a mid-to-late November arrival, based on the Singapore stop and the onward transit.

The deployment comes against a tense regional backdrop. Traders remain all but certain that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran holds through Sunday, while an effective ceasefire between the United States and Iran by then is seen as unlikely.

What counts is the ship physically entering the region, meaning Central Command's area or the U.S. 5th Fleet's area of operations. That can be established by a statement from the Navy, the Defense Department or a military command, or by a consensus of credible reporting. An order, a schedule or a report that the carrier is on its way would not be enough. If the picture is unclear when Sunday ends, the question can stay open for up to seven more days while confirmation is sought.