Chiang Wan-an favored to keep Taipei mayoralty two weeks before vote

Two weeks before Taipei votes for mayor, traders expect the incumbent, Chiang Wan-an of the Kuomintang, to hold the office. They see him as the likely winner on Nov. 28, while a victory for his challenger, Democratic Progressive Party legislator Puma Shen, is considered unlikely but far from ruled out. The contest is treated as a two-person race.

Those expectations have barely changed in two weeks. Shen's chances rose slightly at the start of November, dipped after Nov. 4 as bets on Chiang firmed, and have since drifted in a narrow band, ending up roughly where they stood at the end of October. There were brief swings within single days early in the month, including a short-lived rise for Shen on Nov. 3 and sharp dips on Nov. 4 and Nov. 5, but none lasted.

The steadiness contrasts with polling that is hard to read. In May, TVBS found Chiang ahead 58% to 30% among respondents willing to vote. Later surveys showed a much closer race. A United Daily News poll conducted Oct. 20-25 put Shen ahead 45% to 41%. A TVBS poll taken after a debate on Oct. 31 put Chiang ahead 46% to 42% among willing voters, and an ETtoday online panel surveyed Nov. 1-3 found Chiang leading 50.7% to 41.9%. PollTrack's weighted estimate on Saturday put Shen ahead by one point, though that estimate is not a prediction of the result.

The surveys use different methods and have reached different conclusions, which makes the state of the race difficult to judge. Traders nonetheless give Chiang a clearer advantage than the closest polls suggest.

Taiwan's Central Election Commission lists Chiang and Shen among six registered candidates for Taipei mayor.

The commission held the first mayoral policy presentation on Saturday and has scheduled a second for Nov. 21. Voting takes place a week later, on Nov. 28, during the daytime in Taiwan. The candidates' final campaigning and the vote count will decide whether Shen unseats Chiang.