Traders trim bets on Lutnick leaving Commerce by year-end

Traders have pulled back on bets that Howard Lutnick will leave his post as U.S. commerce secretary by year-end. His departure, treated as an even bet or slightly better a day ago, is now seen as somewhat less likely than his staying, though the question remains close to a toss-up. The reason for the shift is not yet clear.

The slide came late Saturday. Expectations hovered around even through most of the day, then dropped over a few hours in the evening and have held at the lower level through Sunday morning. No reported development has been identified that explains the move.

A far quicker exit looks unlikely to traders: bets on Lutnick leaving before the end of November have also eased and sit well below those on a departure by the end of December.

Lutnick has been under pressure over his department's handling of advanced-chip exports to China. On Nov. 12, Reuters reported that senior White House officials were discussing whether to push him out. A White House official said President Donald Trump maintained complete confidence in him. Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang resigned the same day following revelations about his relationship with a suspected Chinese intelligence operative.

The pressure continued on Nov. 13, when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly faulted Commerce for failing to restrict Nvidia customer Megaspeed, according to Yahoo Finance. Republicans and Democrats alike have sought answers about export controls, and Lutnick agreed to testify before Congress.

Several dates now loom. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Chris Coons have asked for confirmation by Nov. 17 that Commerce and other offices are preserving records related to the Nvidia affair. Lutnick is due to testify on Dec. 10 before the Senate Banking Committee.

An announcement of his resignation or removal before the end of December would count as a departure for these bets even if it took effect later. A period out of the job of any length would also count.