Investors' doubts on Anthropic's valuation leave SpaceX likely to hold 2026's top IPO

Traders now see SpaceX as likely to hold the largest IPO of 2026, measured by market value at the close of a company's first day of trading. Bets on its lead have strengthened further, while Anthropic, the only serious rival, remains an unlikely winner.

The likely reason is a Wall Street Journal report on Thursday. It said three prospective Anthropic IPO investors believe the company's valuation would need to fall below $1.5 trillion after a selloff in AI stocks, and one suggested it could be closer to $1 trillion. That would leave Anthropic under SpaceX's first-day closing value of roughly $2.1 trillion. Neither Anthropic's offering price nor its first-day closing value has been set. The report came while bets on SpaceX were already climbing, so it likely extended the rise rather than started it.

The path has been uneven. Late last month, bets on SpaceX fell to roughly a toss-up, with sharp swings on Oct. 26 and Oct. 28. They recovered through the start of November, climbed again on Wednesday and Thursday, and kept rising into Friday, with Anthropic's chances moving the other way.

SpaceX listed on June 12 and closed its first trading day at $160.95 a share. Any later 2026 IPO would need to close its first day above that value to take the top spot, and a company that never completes an IPO this year cannot win.

Anthropic's valuation hopes have been sliding for weeks. Investors first discussed about $2 trillion, but Reuters reported on Oct. 15 that some had lowered their sights to about $1.5 trillion after an investor presentation showed slowing revenue growth. On Nov. 2, an amended filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission showed roughly $17 billion in third-quarter revenue and a $23.3 billion quarterly loss.

Next comes Anthropic's timetable. It had planned to start its roadshow, when executives pitch the offering to investors, the week of Nov. 9 and price the deal the following week, according to an earlier report from IFR. Reuters says prospective investors now question that schedule. A confirmed delay, the terms of the offering and, if Anthropic lists, its official first-day closing value will decide whether SpaceX's lead holds.