Lower valuation talks cut Anthropic's expected first-day worth to about $1.6 trillion

Traders now expect Anthropic's stock to close its first day of trading with a market value of about $1.6 trillion, down from about $1.75 trillion when this story began. The range they see runs from under $1.25 trillion to about $2.2 trillion. The likeliest single band is $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion, though even that is unlikely on its own. These figures assume Anthropic goes public before 2028, which traders consider very likely.

The shift came after Bloomberg reported Friday, as relayed by Investing.com via StreetInsider, that prospective IPO buyers were discussing a valuation of $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion. That is down from an earlier $1.4 trillion to $1.5 trillion range, after a selloff in AI stocks. The range straddles $1.25 trillion, but it is not an agreed IPO price or a first-day closing value.

Bets that Anthropic closes its first day under $1.25 trillion are still unlikely, but they gained ground. They rose Tuesday, edged higher Wednesday and Thursday, then climbed further Friday, with the biggest step coming in the afternoon. Bets on higher outcomes weakened. A first-day value of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion fell over the past day and remains unlikely, and a value of $2 trillion to $2.25 trillion is now a long shot. A close of $1.25 trillion to $1.5 trillion edged up and is also unlikely.

The repricing builds on earlier reports. Reuters reported in October that investors discussed a valuation of around $1.5 trillion, down from roughly $2 trillion previously expected. Anthropic publicly filed for an IPO on October 26 and updated the filing on November 2. The update showed nearly $17 billion in third-quarter revenue, while the company continued to report losses. On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported that three prospective investors said the valuation would likely need to fall below $1.5 trillion, with one suggesting closer to $1 trillion.

Neither investor talks nor a filing set the final offer price or the value at the first day's close. Anthropic had targeted a mid-November listing, with marketing potentially starting the week of November 9, but prospective investors have questioned whether that timetable can hold. An amended filing with offering terms, the roadshow and the first-day close would clarify the outcome.