Anthropic's loss-heavy IPO filing leaves SpaceX likelier to have 2026's biggest IPO

Traders now see it as unlikely that Anthropic will complete an IPO this year with the largest market value of any 2026 listing, after the company disclosed heavy losses in an amended filing. Late Monday, bets on Anthropic claiming the top spot fell sharply from a toss-up.

The likely reason is the amended IPO filing Anthropic submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday. It shows $17 billion in third-quarter revenue, a $23.3 billion net loss for the quarter and $895.4 billion in purchase and lease commitments, much of it tied to computing infrastructure, according to the filing and reports by Axios and the Associated Press. The disclosures put the cost of Anthropic's growth in focus as investors weigh its valuation. The filing did not set an IPO price or complete the listing.

The move capped a choppy two weeks. Expectations that Anthropic would top the field slid to unlikely around Oct. 23, then climbed to a toss-up by Oct. 28 and eased a little in the days after. Bets on rival SpaceX moved the other way over the story, from a toss-up to likely. Traders also expect SpaceX to finish with the biggest 2026 IPO more often than not, with Anthropic the runner-up.

SpaceX set a high bar. It listed June 12 and closed its first trading day with a market value of about $2.1 trillion, according to Nasdaq. To win, Anthropic must finish its IPO by the end of 2026 and close its first trading day above that mark, not merely aim for a high offering valuation.

Anthropic raised $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation in May and confidentially filed for an IPO in June. Reuters reported in mid-October that some investors were discussing a value near $1.5 trillion, below earlier hopes near $2 trillion. Traders' central expectation for Anthropic's closing market value is $1.85 trillion, within a range of $1.35 trillion to $2.3 trillion. That sits below SpaceX's first-day close.

The filing also said that much of Anthropic's $104 billion net loss for the first nine months reflected a $94 billion accounting adjustment tied to financing agreements.

Anthropic has applied to list on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT, but the offering price, share count and date are still undetermined. Reports have pointed to a November listing, with Nov. 19 or 20 floated as possible pricing dates. Those dates are not confirmed, though traders' central expectation for the listing is mid-November. The price range and first-day trading will show how investors value the company.