Investor doubts cut Anthropic's expected IPO value to about $1.45 trillion before 2028

Traders now expect Anthropic to be valued at about $1.45 trillion if it goes public before 2028, down from about $1.7 trillion when this story began. The range they see runs from $1.25 trillion to $1.95 trillion. The central figure sits inside the $1.25 trillion to $1.5 trillion bracket, which has surged from a long shot to unlikely.

The move came in steps. The bracket was a long shot through Wednesday morning, jumped on Thursday and kept climbing into early Friday, passing its Thursday high. Neighboring outcomes moved the other way. A valuation of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion has lost ground sharply, while $2 trillion to $2.25 trillion remains a long shot. Bets that Anthropic's market value at the close of its first trading day reaches $1.8 trillion or more also fell sharply, from a toss-up to unlikely. Traders also raised bets that SpaceX holds the largest IPO valuation of 2026, which they now see as likely.

The likely reason is a set of reports on Thursday. The Wall Street Journal, via Mint, reported that three prospective investors believed Anthropic's valuation would need to fall below the roughly $1.5 trillion expected after a selloff in AI stocks. One suggested it could be closer to $1 trillion. Reuters separately reported investor pressure for a lower valuation and doubts about the planned roadshow, the marketing tour for the offering. Neither report establishes the final price or that it will land in this range.

The doubts follow a long slide in expectations. Anthropic raised $65 billion at a $965 billion private valuation in May and confidentially filed for an IPO in June. Investor hopes then fell from roughly $2 trillion toward $1.5 trillion, and Reuters reported in October that some investors worried about slowing revenue growth.

An amended filing on Nov. 2 showed nearly $17 billion in third-quarter revenue. It also showed $104 billion in net losses for the first nine months, including a roughly $94 billion accounting charge tied to financing agreements. AI-linked stocks then sold off sharply on Thursday, adding to questions about demand.

What comes next is the roadshow. Reuters previously reported that Anthropic was expected to start marketing shares the week of Nov. 9, but prospective investors now question whether that can happen on schedule. Only the valuation at the final IPO price, as stated in the final prospectus, counts for this bracket. Price ranges, earlier filings and trading after the listing do not, and a valuation exactly on a boundary counts in the higher range. If no IPO prices by the end of 2027, the question resolves as no IPO.