Trump rules out Iran attack, traders still expect Bitcoin to reach $90,000 this year

President Donald Trump said on Oct. 9 that the United States would not attack Iran before the November midterm elections. CoinDesk reported that Bitcoin recovered toward $82,500 after the statement, easing some geopolitical pressure on risk assets. Traders still lean toward Bitcoin reaching $90,000 this year, with expectations only slightly softer than when this story began. The reason for that small change is not yet clear; the latest news does not establish what caused it.

Bets on the target climbed early in October, then retreated. They rose sharply on Oct. 2 before easing, as Bitcoin briefly reached $87,220 and then fell below $84,000. The October jobs report showed payrolls rose by just 29,000, but Bitcoin’s rally reversed amid more than $570 million in reported liquidations. The price swings followed a volatile, two-way reaction rather than a sustained shift on one bearish announcement.

Earlier coverage linked the early-October climb to seasonal “Uptober” optimism and Citigroup’s Oct. 1 increase in its 12-month Bitcoin target to $113,000 from $82,000. Reuters reported that the bank cited renewed ETF inflows and a more supportive backdrop. Later, tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil higher, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $485 million in outflows on Oct. 7. Those developments accompanied Bitcoin’s pullback, but their connection to traders’ expectations for the $90,000 target is indirect.

Across year-end Bitcoin questions, traders’ bets point to a closing price around $82,000, with most outcomes between $65,000 and $105,000. That central estimate is down from $84,000 when this story began, and reaching $100,000 is still unlikely. There is no single scheduled decision that determines whether Bitcoin touches $90,000; any touch before 2027 would count. ETF flows, economic data and geopolitical developments could all shape expectations, with the next U.S. jobs report scheduled for Nov. 6.