Odds of a NATO-Russia clash before year-end slump back to unlikely for no clear reason

Traders now see a direct clash between NATO-country and Russian forces as unlikely before the end of the year, and a long shot by the end of November. The reason for the slide is not clear. No sourced event has been found that explains it.

The drop came fast on Friday evening. Bets on a clash by year-end had climbed through the afternoon to a toss-up, at one point leaning slightly toward it happening. Within about two hours they gave back the whole gain and more. Bets on a clash by the end of November fell from unlikely to a long shot over the same stretch. A clash by the end of this month and one by mid-November are also long shots. Traders' central expectation is now that no clash comes by Dec. 31, though the range of dates they consider runs from early December to not by year-end.

The tension that lifted the odds earlier in the day has not gone away, but none of it was a qualifying clash. A drone strike sank the cargo ship Khoryv about 13 nautical miles off Romania, just outside its territorial waters. One crew member was found dead and three were missing. Romania's president blamed Russia, Reuters reported. NATO has said it will send additional maritime patrol aircraft, radar systems and drones to the Black Sea, and Romania said it will speed up its maritime surveillance and counter-drone capabilities. Earlier Friday, Moscow's airports suspended flights over reported Ukrainian drones.

None of those events was a direct use of force between NATO-country and Russian military forces, which is what the outcome requires. Airspace violations, warning shots, cyberattacks and the shooting down of missiles or drones aimed at a third country do not count. Romania's October 17 shootdown of two drones over its waters also was not a direct encounter between the two sides' forces.

What comes next is open. A local humanitarian ceasefire around Oleshky is due to begin Oct. 27, though it involves Russia and Ukraine, not NATO. Talks among Russia, Ukraine and the United States are not expected before Nov. 10. Traders think Russia-Ukraine peace talks by the end of November are likely. Further attacks on shipping, new NATO or Romanian moves to expand military protection, or any direct use of force between NATO and Russian forces could shift expectations again.