Brazil's election
TSE tally confirms Flávio led Brazil’s first round by under 5 points
Brazil’s final count put Flávio at 47.03% and Lula at 45.16%; traders treat the under-5-point margin as settled.
What’s new · 2 weeks ago
Brazil’s completed TSE tally put Flávio 1.87 points ahead, confirming the under-5-point first-round margin traders treat as settled.
Brazil’s completed TSE tally put Flávio Bolsonaro 1.87 points ahead of Lula da Silva in the first round, confirming a margin under five points. Traders now treat that outcome as settled, though the market has not officially resolved. The result is narrower than the 1.98-point lead reported by El País with nearly 99% counted.
Expectations moved sharply as ballots were counted on Oct. 4. After falling on Oct. 2, bets on a sub-five-point Flávio lead began rising on Oct. 3 and surged during the vote count the next day. Early returns showed him ahead by about 10 points. El País cautioned that right-leaning areas tended to report first and that later returns from poorer regions could shrink his lead. As the margin narrowed in the count, traders shifted from split expectations to treating an under-five-point lead as all but certain.
The final tally confirms the direction of that late shift: Flávio received 47.03% of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16%. The question is about the gap between the candidates’ shares, not the number of ballots separating them. Earlier reports had placed the lead at 4.11 points with about 90% counted, then 1.98 points near 99% counted; the completed count put it at 1.87 points. That progression matched the warning that the early advantage could narrow.
Flávio and Lula are scheduled to face each other in the Oct. 25 runoff, but that vote will not change the first-round margin. The final first-round count establishes a gap below five points; any recount before certification could still affect the formal result.
Sources
El País
Resultados de las elecciones en Brasil, en vivo | Flávio Bolsonaro aventaja a Lula, con más del 35% escrutado
Tribunal Superior Eleitoral
Apuração dos votos começa às 17h, no horário de Brasília
Agência Brasil
Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula head for runoff in Brazil’s presidential race
EL PAÍS
Bolsonaro vence a Lula en primera vuelta de las elecciones y acaricia el retorno de la ultraderecha al poder en Brasil
Tribunal Superior Eleitoral
Divulgação dos resultados das Eleições 2026
EL PAÍS
Lula admite que el resultado electoral es “inesperado” y ataca a Bolsonaro por sus lazos con el crimen
Move history
- Flávio Bolsonaro <5%▲ 9 ptsto 99.2%
- Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%▼ 5 ptsto 0.2%
- Lula da Silva <5%▼ 10 ptsto 0.9%
- Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%▼ 7 ptsto 5.7%
- Flávio Bolsonaro <5%▲ 14 ptsto 90%
Show all 21 movesShow fewer
- Lula da Silva <5%▼ 10 ptsto 11%
- Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%▲ 7 ptsto 10%
- Lula da Silva 5-10%▼ 6 ptsto 0.7%
- Lula da Silva <5%▼ 10 ptsto 21%
- Flávio Bolsonaro <5%▲ 13 ptsto 76%
- Flávio Bolsonaro <5%▲ 17 ptsto 63%
- Lula da Silva <5%▼ 20 ptsto 32%
- Flávio Bolsonaro <5%▲ 14 ptsto 46%
- Lula da Silva 5-10%▼ 10 ptsto 7.0%
- Flávio Bolsonaro <5%▼ 6 ptsto 32%
- Flávio Bolsonaro <5%▲ 11 ptsto 30%
- Lula da Silva <5%▼ 11 ptsto 52%
- Lula da Silva 5-10%▲ 9 ptsto 14%
- Lula da Silva <5%▼ 8 ptsto 63%
- Lula da Silva 5-10%▼ 10 ptsto 4.0%
- Lula da Silva <5%▲ 10 ptsto 68%
Odds reflect traders’ expectations, not facts, and can swing on thin trading.