AP reports Cury finishes third in Brazil's first-round vote

The Associated Press reported that Augusto Cury finished third in Brazil’s first-round presidential vote, with 3.4 million votes. AP said the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral had reported 99.8% of the vote. Traders now treat Cury’s third-place finish as settled, though that market view is not itself an official result. AP also reported that Cury will endorse neither candidate in the October 25 runoff.

Expectations changed sharply as the count came in. Cury’s chances of finishing third slipped from unlikely on Oct. 1 to still lower levels by Oct. 3. They started rising on Oct. 4, then jumped after early TSE-sourced results placed him third with 1.42% of polling sections counted. Later updates kept him in third. By the time 64.81% of sections had reported, Apuração 2026’s tally showed Cury ahead of Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado. The latest move was a smaller nudge, leaving traders treating the outcome as settled. The early count was preliminary; AP’s later report of Cury’s finish is the new development.

The result also reshaped expectations elsewhere in the field. Traders shifted toward Flávio Bolsonaro leading the first-round vote over Lula, while expectations moved toward Santos receiving 2%-4% of valid votes rather than 4%-6%. Those are separate outcomes, but they reflect how the count changed the perceived ranking. Before election day, the Associated Press had reported Cury and Santos polling around 3% each, and Folha de S.Paulo described the contest for third as unsettled.

With the first-round ranking reported by AP, further movement in Cury’s standing looks unlikely. The TSE’s final tally remains the key official check if reporting is unclear. Cury’s decision not to endorse either runoff candidate leaves the presidential contest ahead on Oct. 25, but the runoff will not change who finished third in the first round.