Two weeks before Brazil's presidential runoff, traders favor Flávio Bolsonaro to win

With two weeks until Brazil’s runoff, traders strongly favor Flávio Bolsonaro to win the presidency. His prospects have edged higher since the last update, while a Folha-reported Ipespe poll puts him ahead of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 52.7% to 47.3% of valid runoff votes. The poll’s margin of error is 2.6 points, so the contest remains close in the survey. A related market now treats Lula’s victory as unlikely.

Expectations moved sharply earlier in October. They weakened on Oct. 2 after a Datafolha poll showed Lula ahead, then recovered the next day. Flávio’s odds climbed further on Oct. 4 as the first-round count showed him leading Lula, 47.03% to 45.16% of valid votes. Neither candidate won a majority, sending the race to a runoff. The expectations settled at a high level over the following days, with another Datafolha poll on Oct. 8 also showing Flávio ahead among valid runoff votes.

Since the first round, former rivals and right-wing parties have endorsed Flávio, EL PAÍS reports. Ipespe’s latest poll adds to that favorable picture, but does not settle the race. Earlier coverage also reported that Brazil’s electoral court ordered three of Flávio’s posts removed, including an unlabeled AI-generated image of Lula. That ruling is a campaign development, not a reported reason for the latest movement in expectations.

The candidates have two more televised debates planned: Band on Oct. 18 and TV Globo on Oct. 23. Their campaigns are also courting voters whose first-round choices were eliminated. Polls, debate performances and endorsements could still affect expectations before the Oct. 25 runoff, when the vote will decide the question.