Early returns swing traders to expecting a Lula win in Brazil's runoff

Flávio Bolsonaro moved ahead of Lula for the first time in Brazil's presidential runoff count, UOL's live tracker of returns from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) showed. With about 15.4% of sections counted, the tracker had Bolsonaro at 50.1% and Lula at 49.9%. The tally is partial and is not a final result.

Traders still consider Lula the likely winner, and a Bolsonaro victory remains unlikely in their view. This development follows a sharp swing earlier on Sunday evening. Bolsonaro had been the likely winner for two weeks, and bets on him strengthened further on Saturday. They began slipping on Sunday evening, fell to a toss-up as the first returns arrived, then dropped to unlikely within minutes. At the low point his chances were a long shot. They then rebounded by more than twenty points in a couple of minutes but stayed below even. No reported news explained that rebound. Lula's chances rose from unlikely to likely over the same stretch.

Earlier partial returns, which showed Lula at 52.1% with 1.8% of sections counted and then 51.3% with 3.2% counted, plausibly explain the first swing, UOL's figures indicate. Early sections can differ sharply from the country as a whole, and the narrowing since then shows how fluid the count remains.

Other bets moved the same way. Traders pulled back on Bolsonaro winning the most votes in Amapá, which went from likely to unlikely, and lifted bets on Lula winning by less than 4% to a toss-up.

The race was expected to be close. Bolsonaro led the Oct. 4 first round with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula's 45.16%, which sent the contest to a runoff. A Datafolha poll reported on Oct. 22 put the two at 50% each. Surveys by Datafolha and Quaest on Saturday each put Bolsonaro at 51% to Lula's 49%, within their margins of error.

The Associated Press reported that the TSE extended voting by two hours after requests from both campaigns. It said the decision caused confusion at some polling places and that legal challenges are possible, which could delay a final outcome.

The count is continuing. The next meaningful developments are further batches of returns and the official TSE total, which will settle the winner. Further returns showing either candidate building an advantage could move expectations again.