Iran reports Hormuz route progress while traders see deal unlikely this month

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran and Oman agreed on coordinates for safe shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz and on how to notify an international maritime body. That is reported progress, but it does not establish that both governments have accepted the same official agreement. Traders still consider a deal unlikely this month.

Expectations fell from near even on October 7 to a more doubtful level the next day, then steadied. Reuters, republished by AOL, and Dawn reported that IRGC adviser Mohammad Reza Naqdi warned Iran could block routes it considers illegal, including the shipping path along Oman’s coast. The warning concerns a route central to the arrangement under discussion and likely weighed on bets. Earlier, expectations had slipped from late September into October 5, then rebounded sharply on October 6 and 7; reporting reviewed does not establish a distinct cause for every part of that rise.

The route-coordinate statement adds to months of talks, but formal acceptance remains the key distinction. The Associated Press reported in August that the countries were discussing an interim traffic arrangement, with details unresolved. Oman’s Foreign Ministry later described a proposed temporary corridor and said technical negotiations would continue toward a permanent route and future management. Oman postponed a regional meeting on the issue in September without announcing a new date. The latest statement signals technical coordination, not a completed pact.

The next meaningful evidence would be an official announcement from both governments accepting the same agreement, or formal communication of the arrangement to the relevant international maritime body. No new date has been reported for the postponed meeting. Continued negotiations could improve prospects, while fresh disagreement over access to Oman’s coast or renewed threats to shipping could make an agreement harder to reach before October ends.