Bets now point to the Israel-Iran ceasefire lasting only to late November

Traders now expect the ceasefire between Israel and Iran to last until about late November, a few weeks sooner than the mid-December they expected when this story began. The chance that it holds through December 31 has slid from a toss-up to unlikely.

The reason for the drop is not yet clear, and this story will be updated when one emerges. The slide was gradual for two weeks and then sharp. Expectations edged up on Tuesday, then fell hard in the early hours of Wednesday. They recovered part of that loss through the morning, then drifted lower again late in the day.

The shorter-dated questions show where doubt is concentrated. A ceasefire lasting through October 31 is all but certain, and one lasting through mid-November is still likely. A ceasefire lasting through November 30 has slipped but remains a toss-up. Traders' range runs from early November to after December 31, and the single likeliest outcome is still a ceasefire that outlasts the year, though traders see that as less likely than not. For the separate U.S.-Iran ceasefire, traders expect about mid-November.

The question asks whether a state of ceasefire remains in effect through December 31. It ends if Israel or Iran carries out an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike that directly hits the other's land or internal waters. Interceptions, debris, minor strikes, ground incursions, cyber operations and threats do not count.

Recent coverage offers background but not a confirmed cause. Axios reported on October 21 that dozens of Israeli fighter jets flew a sortie to Iran's border on October 19, which officials viewed as a show of force that risked miscalculation. CNN reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged President Donald Trump to join a strike before Israel's election, which Netanyahu's office calls fake news. Neither report has been tied to Wednesday's move.

What comes next depends on whether either side launches a strike that meets those terms, and on any new diplomacy. No scheduled event in the available information is likely to settle the question soon.