Opposition backing makes Eizenkot a slight favorite to become Israel's next premier

Bets that Gadi Eizenkot becomes Israel's next prime minister rose sharply on Wednesday, moving him from a toss-up to a slight favorite, after opposition leaders agreed to back him. The question covers whoever is sworn in as prime minister after the 2026 election or an early election, with a deadline of the end of 2027.

On November 3, Eizenkot and other opposition leaders agreed to recommend him to President Isaac Herzog and to begin work on coalition agreements, Al Jazeera reports. The coordinated backing strengthens his route to a mandate to form a government. It is not a coalition agreement, and it is not an appointment as prime minister.

The odds climbed through the morning. Bets on Eizenkot had hovered in toss-up territory since Sunday, edging up after a Joint List official said Arab-led parties were expected to back him. They jumped further in the early hours of Wednesday, rising by a large margin over a day.

The move reverses much of a slide after the October 27 election. Eizenkot's chances fell sharply on election night and the next day as Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud pulled ahead in the count. The completed count gave Likud 27 seats and Eizenkot's Yashar party 21. Netanyahu's bloc won 53 seats, Eizenkot's opposition bloc 48 and Arab-led parties 19. A majority requires 61 seats.

Traders now see Netanyahu as unlikely to return as prime minister. Bets on Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman remain a long shot. Traders also see Eizenkot as all but certain to receive the first mandate to form a government, which is a step short of the premiership.

Obstacles remain. Differences among the Jewish-led opposition parties over cooperating with Arab-led parties still stand in the way of assembling a majority.

Herzog is due to consult parties on Wednesday and Thursday before choosing whom to ask to form a government. The new Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in on November 10. The chosen candidate must then negotiate enough support to govern. Receiving the first mandate alone does not settle this question, which requires a prime minister to be officially appointed and sworn in.