Traders certain Israel-Iran ceasefire continues through November 5

Traders now treat it as certain that the ceasefire holds between Israel and Iran through the end of Thursday, Nov. 5, Iran time. The question has not yet resolved, and no reported event has been identified as driving the latest rise in confidence. The reason is not yet clear.

Confidence has built steadily since the story began. A truce through Nov. 5 was likely at the start of the week and is now all but certain. Bets hovered in a high range from Sunday through Tuesday, dipped briefly on Tuesday, then climbed sharply on Wednesday and edged higher in the early hours of Thursday.

Longer-dated questions rose as well. A truce lasting through Nov. 6 or Nov. 7 is all but certain. One through Nov. 15, Nov. 22 or Nov. 30 is likely. Across the full set of questions, traders expect the truce to last until about mid-December, with answers running from early November to after Dec. 31. That is later than the late-November expectation when the story began. A truce through mid-December and one through the end of December were each unlikely at the start and are now toss-ups, a swing that came within days.

The ceasefire ends only if Israel or Iran carries out an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike that directly hits the other's territory. Threats, intercepted missiles, debris and strikes carried out only by the United States do not count.

The backdrop remains fragile. The United States and Israel launched their war against Iran on Feb. 28. A Pakistan-mediated ceasefire and a June memorandum halted large-scale fighting, but later strikes and disputes left the truce shaky. Qatar has mediated renewed U.S.-Iran contacts, and Bloomberg reported on Nov. 3 that both sides were weighing fresh proposals, even as U.S. forces carried out limited strikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz. Those reports are background and do not establish what moved the bets. Traders do not expect a U.S.-Iran agreement on Hormuz by the end of December.

Nothing in the reporting points to a scheduled decision before the deadline. Diplomatic efforts continue alongside the risk of renewed escalation, and a single qualifying strike by Israel or Iran before the day ends would end the truce under the question's terms.