Bets still point to an Israel-Iran truce lasting to late November after a one-day slide

Traders expect the Israel-Iran ceasefire to last to about late November, according to bets across the full set of dates. That is earlier than the early December they expected when this story began. Their range runs from early November to after December 31.

The odds that the truce holds through November 15 have recovered to likely, after falling to a toss-up on October 29. The rebound came overnight and has held through Friday. The reason is not clear. No news report examined for this story explains it.

The slide followed Sen. Chris Murphy's October 29 statement that he had been briefed on a U.S. plan for renewed military operations against Iran. He warned it would escalate the war. Bets held near likely for most of that day, then fell steadily through the evening before turning up in the early hours of October 30. A similar drop on October 21 also reversed within days.

Iranian state media said Qatari mediators returned to Tehran on October 30 to meet Iranian officials, the Associated Press reported. The visit followed a letter from Vice President JD Vance. Iran acknowledged receiving it but has not disclosed a response. The rebound began hours before that report, so the visit cannot be tied to it.

The near-term dates still look safe. A truce through October 31 is all but certain, and one through November 4 or November 7 is likely. Lasting through November 30 is a toss-up, and lasting through December 31 is unlikely. A separate bet on a U.S.-Iran truce through November 15 stayed a toss-up throughout.

The bet counts only a major break. The ceasefire ends if Israel or Iran carries out an air or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly hits the other's territory or internal waters. Interceptions, debris, maritime incidents, minor strikes, ground incursions, cyber operations and threats do not count.

The war began on February 28, when the United States and Israel attacked Iran. Later ceasefires halted large-scale fighting, but disputes over Iran's nuclear program, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions remain unresolved. ABC News reported on October 22 that U.S. and Israeli officials were drawing up plans for possible renewed attacks after the U.S. midterm elections.

The next test is the midterm elections on November 3, after which those reported preparations could matter. Mediators are trying to restart negotiations, but the reporting reviewed shows no new agreement and no date for direct talks.