Likud's lead in the count leaves Netanyahu narrowly favored over Eizenkot for premier

Traders have cut their expectations again that Gadi Eizenkot will become Israel's next prime minister. His chances were already unlikely and slipped further early Wednesday. The likely reason is the continuing partial count from the Central Elections Committee, which kept Likud ahead of Eizenkot's Yashar party. The Associated Press reported that with about half the votes counted, Likud had 20.6% and Yashar 16.8%. The count reinforced how hard Eizenkot's path to forming a government looks, but it did not settle who can assemble a coalition. The Petek, a tracker of the committee's totals, has published the live seat count.

Benjamin Netanyahu is now the narrow favorite to be the next prime minister, with Eizenkot the runner-up. Netanyahu's chances are a toss-up, up sharply since Tuesday. Naftali Bennett is a long shot. Traders also treat Likud winning 20 to 24 seats as all but ruled out, and they expect the party to win about 27 seats, within a range of 25.4 to 28.8.

The swing in Eizenkot's fortunes has been dramatic. His chances rose on Monday and through much of Tuesday, reaching likely. They then fell sharply on Tuesday evening, rebounded within minutes and slipped again, with no reported news explaining that whipsaw. Overnight into Wednesday they dropped from a toss-up to unlikely, and they fell further in the early morning.

A later tally with 55.52% counted projected Netanyahu's bloc at 56 seats, the opposition at 49 and Arab parties at 15. None of the main blocs is near the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. These figures are provisional projections, not final results.

Israelis voted on October 27. Exit polls released when voting ended showed no clear majority and Likud ahead of Yashar in seats, despite earlier polling that had made Eizenkot's party look competitive. The question concerns who is formally appointed and sworn in as prime minister after this election or an early one. A caretaker prime minister does not count, so leading the tally settles nothing by itself, and the leading party's leader is not automatically appointed.

The count is still provisional. Special double-envelope ballots, including soldiers' ballots, are due to be counted on October 29, and official results are due by November 4. President Isaac Herzog will then consult the parties and task the person he judges most likely to form a government. Coalition negotiations, including whether Arab parties support or join a coalition, will decide whether either side can reach 61 seats.