Maariv poll firms bets Yashar wins most seats in Israel's October election

A new Maariv poll puts Yashar ahead of Likud, and traders now favor Yashar to win the most seats in Israel’s October 27 election. The survey, reported by The Jerusalem Post and Madad 120, gives Yashar 21 seats and Likud 18, with Likud down two seats from the previous week. Yashar’s chances edged higher, from likely to more firmly favored, while bets on Likud’s lead have fallen back into unlikely territory.

The latest move extends a sharp change in expectations over the past few days, though the race remains divided among pollsters. Yashar’s chances sat close to even through much of October 2–12, then rose on October 13 and 14 as several polls put Yashar ahead. They eased on October 15, when traders briefly moved back toward a toss-up for Likud; the reason for that rebound was not established. The new Maariv survey offers a likely reason for the latest shift toward Yashar.

The poll is consistent with a broader pattern, not a settled polling consensus. An October 16 tracker averaging surveys from ten outlets puts the parties nearly level, while Channel 14 and i24 project a Likud lead. Across election markets, however, traders favor Yashar to lead the field. The latest move also reverses part of the brief swing back toward Likud, while leaving the outcome open.

The October 27 election is the next major test. Israel’s Central Elections Committee lists November 4 for publication of results. New polls and campaign developments could change expectations before voting; the count and official results will determine which party or coalition wins the most Knesset seats.