Netanyahu stays Israel's likeliest next prime minister, though bets on him slip

Traders still see Benjamin Netanyahu as the likeliest person to be Israel's next prime minister, but bets on him have slipped back to a toss-up after climbing sharply this week. Gadi Eizenkot, who leads the Yashar party, is the clear runner-up and is still seen as unlikely to win. Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman remain long shots.

The reason for the latest decline is not clear. Counting finished on Oct. 29, and an independent tracker using Central Elections Committee figures showed Likud with 27 seats and Yashar with 21. The same tracker gave Netanyahu's bloc 53 seats, the opposition bloc 48 and Arab-led parties 19. The count is still subject to verification, and the committee's own results page could not be read independently. Neither main bloc has the 61 seats needed for a majority. Nothing in the available reporting establishes that these results caused the drop.

Bets on Netanyahu rose from unlikely to roughly even on Oct. 27, the day Israel voted, and climbed further the next day, when they briefly made him look more likely than not as Likud led the partial count. They gave back much of that ground on Oct. 29 and ended the day at a toss-up. Eizenkot's chances also rose over the same stretch, though they remain well behind Netanyahu's.

Likud has alleged that the election was stolen. Those claims were unsubstantiated, the Associated Press reported. The election committee asked the Shin Bet to investigate alleged foreign interference but said claims of systematic violations of electoral integrity were baseless. This is background, not an established cause of the move.

The question is who is sworn in as the next prime minister after the election, so Netanyahu staying on as a caretaker leader would not count. Official results are due Nov. 4. President Isaac Herzog must then consult the parties and, within seven days, task a member of the Knesset with forming a government. Coalition negotiations will decide who can win a confidence vote, including whether opposition parties can cooperate with Arab-led parties.