Close Maariv poll leaves bettors split on Israel's October election

A new Maariv/Lazar poll reported October 9 puts Yashar one seat ahead of Likud, while projecting both political blocs to win 52 seats. The survey offers another close snapshot of Israel's October election, and bettors remain split over which party will win the most seats.

Expectations for Yashar moved sharply earlier in October. The party's chances began near even, fell until a win looked unlikely, then recovered to around even by October 2. The Jerusalem Post said an earlier Maariv poll plausibly contributed to the decline: it showed Likud gaining a seat and Yashar losing one, narrowing Yashar's lead, though it still put Yashar ahead. The reason for the rapid rebound was not clear. Since then, the betting picture has stayed close as polls have offered conflicting results.

The latest survey adds to that mixed picture, rather than resolving the race. Across eight recent polls, Yashar ranged from 20 to 24 seats and Likud from 20 to 31. Channel 13 tied the parties, while Channel 14 gave Likud a substantial lead, according to the Israel Votes 2026 tracker. The Jerusalem Post reported that in the latest Maariv poll, 86% of opposition supporters said they were certain to vote, compared with 81% of coalition supporters. That difference is one turnout signal, not a result.

Israel's election is scheduled for October 27, with official results expected November 4. More polling and campaign developments could change expectations before voters go to the polls. Ultimately, the seat count will determine which party wins the most; tied bloc totals do not settle that question.