Two weeks before Israel's election, traders split on Yashar winning most seats

With two weeks until Israel’s parliamentary election, traders are almost evenly divided over whether Yashar or Likud will win the most Knesset seats. Yashar has a slight edge in this contest, but the broader picture remains close: election-wide estimates also put Yashar narrowly ahead of Likud, with the two parties the clear frontrunners.

The odds were just below even when earlier coverage focused on a close Maariv poll on October 2. They moved around that level in the days that followed, briefly giving Yashar a clearer advantage before returning close to even. On Tuesday, the balance shifted back toward Yashar, leaving the race nearly even overall. The change comes amid conflicting polling, rather than a settled picture of the contest.

Recent surveys have offered different readings. A Maariv poll published October 9 put Yashar at 21 seats and Likud at 20. A KAN poll published October 11 projected Yashar at 22 and Likud at 20, but gave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc a three-seat lead over the bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot. A Channel 14 poll on October 12 showed a sharp contrast, projecting Likud at 29 seats and Yashar at 20, with Netanyahu’s bloc at 61. A tracker’s latest-outlet average puts Likud slightly ahead of Yashar, while noting that Channel 14’s numbers diverge substantially from other pollsters.

The earlier Maariv survey had narrowed the gap between the parties, but subsequent polls have not produced a consistent winner. The latest surveys are projections, not results, and the question is which party or coalition list wins the most seats—not which bloc can form a government.

Election Day is October 27, with results scheduled for publication on November 4, according to Israel’s Central Elections Committee. Further polls, late shifts in voter preferences and turnout, and the final count could change expectations before voters decide the contest.