Traders split on OpenAI announcing another Millennium Prize solution before 2028

Traders are now split on whether OpenAI will announce another qualifying Millennium Prize solution before 2028. The odds fell sharply from likely to a toss-up, but the reason for the drop is not yet clear. Searches found no new announcement or specific event tied to the move.

Expectations held steady through much of Thursday, rose briefly in the afternoon, then slid back and dropped further by evening. That erased the brief rise and left the outcome close to even. The change reflects expectations for an announcement, not evidence that OpenAI has solved—or failed to solve—an eligible problem.

OpenAI’s recent math claims have drawn attention, but none identified a qualifying solution. On September 8, the company said an internal model had produced a proof concerning Navier–Stokes. OpenAI said it would not seek the Millennium Prize for that work, and Navier–Stokes is excluded from this outcome. Nature reported that mathematicians would need to examine the claim and proof.

On September 21, OpenAI announced an advisory group on mathematics and AI and said the same model had resolved more than 100 other open problems. TechCrunch reported that the group would not control the company’s research pace, amid calls from mathematicians for careful review and communication. Those claims did not identify another eligible Millennium Prize solution. Earlier reports of “substantial progress” also did not name a problem or give a timeline.

For the outcome to count, OpenAI or an official representative must announce a solution to an eligible problem, such as the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Hodge Conjecture, or the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture. Partial results and further work on Navier–Stokes would not qualify. No specific announcement date or milestone has been identified. A named, qualifying solution could shift expectations; general claims of mathematical progress would not establish that one has been announced.