Traders expect Niculescu to become Romania's PM before 2028

Traders now see diplomat Luca Niculescu as all but certain to become Romania’s next prime minister before 2028. In a separate market, bets on Sorin Grindeanu becoming prime minister have settled at No: traders treat the outcome as decided, but that is not an official appointment or confirmation that he cannot take office. The reason for the latest slide in Grindeanu’s bets has not been reported.

Grindeanu was already a long shot after a sharp fall on Tuesday. His prospects dwindled further on Wednesday, while Niculescu’s separate market continued to climb, leaving him close to certain in traders’ eyes. The two markets point to a clear preference for Niculescu, but only his formal appointment and a parliamentary vote of confidence would establish that he has become prime minister.

The latest move follows a volatile stretch after President Nicușor Dan nominated Niculescu on October 5, seeking to resolve a political crisis. Niculescu’s prospects swung sharply as traders weighed whether he could assemble enough support in Parliament. An earlier rebound followed comments by AUR Senate leader Petrișor Peiu, reported by News.ro and Digi24, that a Niculescu government could win confidence if the Social Democrats supported it. Peiu also said AUR would oppose the cabinet. That explanation concerns the earlier move, not the latest drop in Grindeanu’s market.

Niculescu has roughly until October 15 or 16 to submit a cabinet and program, with a confidence vote to follow. Because AUR says it will oppose the cabinet, support or abstentions from the Social Democrats or the liberal PNL could prove important. A commitment from either party could bolster the outlook for Niculescu; a delayed submission or a failed vote would challenge it. The Grindeanu market’s settlement is traders’ judgment, not a substitute for those formal steps.