Kremlin's opening on talks firms up bets on a Russia-Ukraine meeting by year-end

Kremlin foreign-policy adviser Yuri Ushakov said the proposed three-way talks with Ukraine and the United States could be held in Abu Dhabi, and that future negotiations would focus on a security arrangement for Russia and Ukraine after the war, according to reports from PBS NewsHour and SBS, citing AP and CNN. The comments followed Ushakov's account of a meeting between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and President Vladimir Putin, in which Putin was said to be ready in principle to resume talks around November 10. Neither Ukraine nor the United States has confirmed a date or venue.

Traders still see a Russia-Ukraine meeting by year-end as likely. Their central expectation is mid-November, within a range that runs from early November to no meeting by the end of December. When this story began, the central expectation was no meeting this year. A meeting by the end of November has also moved from unlikely to likely.

Bets on a meeting this month are a smaller story. They stayed near a long shot for much of Wednesday, then jumped late in the day to unlikely. The reason for that late jump is not clear. The Kremlin's November 10 timing is background, not an established cause. Talks are described as resuming after November 10, which falls after the end of October, so a meeting this month would have to come earlier than anything Moscow has said.

The path has been uneven. Bets on talks fell through mid-October after President Donald Trump announced an energy truce on October 11 that quickly unraveled. Ukraine accused Russia of violations, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on October 15 that Kyiv was no longer observing the pause. Expectations bottomed out around last Friday and Saturday before climbing from October 19.

A meeting must bring authorized Russian and Ukrainian representatives together in person to negotiate a ceasefire, a peace agreement or another substantive de-escalation. Witkoff's session with Putin does not count, and neither do humanitarian-only or remote talks. Mediated in-person meetings do count. A Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement this month remains a long shot.

What comes next depends on whether Moscow, Kyiv and Washington confirm a date and venue. Russia has not backed down from demands that reportedly include Ukraine ceding the rest of Donbas, a smaller Ukrainian army and no NATO membership for Kyiv, so the talks could still stall.