Euronews reports Ukraine disrupted Russia’s Donbas plan while traders split on Druzhkivka

Euronews reported on October 9 that the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi disrupted the northern arm of Russia’s attempted encirclement of the Donbas. Euronews also said Russia’s remaining advance from the southwest now faces more ambitious objectives. The report adds strategic context to the fight for the Donetsk Fortress Belt, but does not report that Russian forces have entered Druzhkivka. Traders are split on whether they will enter the city this year.

Expectations had eased from October 1 through October 3, then rose on October 4 and 5, bringing the question from unlikely to close to even. The increase followed a DeepState report, carried by ZN.ua, that Russian forces had captured Ivanivka and advanced near Nove Shakhove on the Dobropillia front. Those developments were in the broader approach to Druzhkivka, not inside the city. The report is the likely reason for that earlier rise.

ISW’s October 7 assessment said there were no confirmed Russian advances around Dobropillia on October 6 and 7, while reporting Russian personnel shifting toward the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk direction. Its October 8 assessment reported Ukrainian counterattacks and advances east of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, which ISW said could complicate Russia’s campaign against the Fortress Belt. These reports describe fighting across the wider front; none establishes Russian entry into Druzhkivka.

Further ISW daily assessments and maps are the key developments to watch. For Russian entry to count, ISW must show assessed Russian infiltration, controlled terrain or advances inside Druzhkivka that persist through the next full daily update. A claim alone would not be enough. Ukrainian counterattacks or Russian advances near the city could also change expectations as the fighting continues through year-end.