Bets on Alito announcing his retirement by next June fall sharply for no clear reason

Bets that Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito will announce his retirement by next June fell sharply on Friday afternoon, dropping within minutes from a toss-up to unlikely. The reason for the drop is not clear. No announcement by Alito or an official representative has been reported, and the Supreme Court's official materials still list him as a sitting justice.

The move is the latest in a volatile stretch. Bets climbed on Oct. 16, when President Trump reshared a Politico report about Alito weighing retirement and called him "a great man." The post was not a retirement announcement. Expectations then slipped from Oct. 18 through Oct. 21, rebounded on Oct. 22 and drifted higher overnight before Friday's fall. Earlier coverage described the retreat and the rebound as unexplained, and Friday's drop does not settle that.

Bets that Alito announces a retirement by the end of this year are also unlikely, and they did not move on Friday. That suggests traders see the end of the Court's term next June as the more plausible window, but not a likely one.

Alito has addressed the question himself. He told CBS News on Oct. 5 that he had considered retiring but decided to stay, saying he believed he could still make a valuable contribution. The next day he told Bloomberg he intended to serve through the current term, even if Democrats win the Senate in the Nov. 3 midterm elections. The Washington Post has reported that retirement speculation continues to swirl as rulings favorable to Trump raise his stature.

The outcome traders are weighing is narrow. It requires an explicit announcement by Alito or an official representative that he will retire, by the end of the Court's term next June. The retirement would not need to take effect right away. Speculation, praise from others or a statement from Trump alone would not count.

What comes next depends on the midterms and on Alito himself. The Nov. 3 elections may change the politics around any future vacancy. The Court's term runs through June 2027, and Alito has said he will reconsider retirement over time. Until he or his office says something, the bets are likely to keep reacting to rumor and commentary rather than to confirmed news.