Traders certain Russia and Ukraine will hold a diplomatic meeting

Traders now treat a diplomatic meeting between Russia and Ukraine this month as certain, though none has been held or scheduled. Bets edged up again on Friday from all but certain, and no credible report or official announcement explains the latest rise.

The climb has been abrupt. Early in the week a meeting this month looked unlikely. On Thursday the bets swung several times between a toss-up and likely. Early Friday they surged to all but certain, a turnaround of the kind rarely seen in a single day, and they have since firmed to certain. Bets on a meeting by the end of November and by year-end have also settled at certain, and traders see peace talks by the end of November as likely.

The timing traders now treat as certain does not match what officials have said. After U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff met Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg on Oct. 21, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Russia was willing in principle to resume U.S.-mediated, three-way talks with Ukraine around Nov. 10. That would fall after this month. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine supported a meeting as soon as possible, preferably by early November, Reuters reported. Reports named Abu Dhabi as a possible venue, but no date or venue has been announced.

The diplomatic track looked stalled earlier in October. On Oct. 10, Ushakov said Ukrainian drone attacks had undermined an immediate restart of talks, and U.S. envoys later postponed a planned Moscow trip. Witkoff then met Zelensky in Oslo on Oct. 20 before traveling to see Putin.

The question counts only in-person meetings between officially authorized Russian and Ukrainian representatives, including indirect ones through authorized mediators. Calls and remote sessions do not count, and the meeting must be publicly acknowledged by a government or widely reported by credible media.

A meeting would not by itself signal a deal. Traders still see a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement this month as a long shot. The Washington Post reported that Russia agreed to restart three-way talks but that peace in Ukraine is far off.

What comes next depends on whether the sides confirm a date. A firm announcement of a meeting before the end of the month, or a change in either side's willingness to attend, would shape what happens next. Without one, the Kremlin's own timing points to a meeting in November.